Third Amendment Watch

Job losses -- "The sun also rises."

2008-12-08T15:03:00.001-05:00

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28069440

So this analysis takes one of the very few things I already knew about macroeconomics -- that job gains and job losses are both lagging indicators of the health of the economy -- and comes to the conclusion that the worst is over as of today. In fact, he found a grown-up willing to say as much:

"Every recession has its worst day, and this is probably the worst day," says Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

~

"Severe drops like this (the Sept.-Nov. payrolls) cannot be sustained," says Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics.

I think that's probably right as far as it goes... and it dovetails with the idea that if this is in fact not another Great Depression -- that we are starting to run out of ground where we can bottom out and not actually attain economic dimensions last seen in the 1930s.

Another pretty easy-to-grasp example is that the Great Depression saw an 80 percent stock drop. We've already seen a 60 percent drop in the S&P. There just isn't much daylight left between 60 percent and 80 percent, is the point... just like with these jobs numbers. There's a reason it's been since 1974 that America lost 533,000 jobs in one month: it's just not structurally possible that often, it takes a catastrope like the failure of Lehman Brothers to bring it on, and it can't happen month after month after month.

Now, the possibility that's still out there, admittedly, is that this is another Great Depression -- that we are fooling ourselves about how not-bad things are and that we are in for ten long years of things being as bad as they have ever been. I don't think that's where we're headed and I'm not alone in predicting that we avoid that... but it remains possible.

In short, though: If this is, in fact, simply a bad recession... then I think we will look back on December 5, 2008 as the moment when we were halfway through the tunnel. With additional layoffs and government furloughs and stock and oil price drops still looming, it will still be dark in here for a while, but we'll be able to see the light shortly.

Larry Kudlow is a tool.

2008-11-14T10:28:00.001-05:00

I'm not going to link to any of his stuff, but I just wanted to get Third Amendment Watch on the record. Fish some out of the internets yourself if you want. Just google Larry Kudlow, click on the first thing you find that he's written, read it, and then see if you're dumber for having done so.

Loyal readers, I know you come here for thoughtful discourse and not name-calling, but this is not my fault. It's Larry Kudlow's fault. If you see him, punch him in the junk for me.

Alabama -- you are awful. I invite you to cease to be.

2008-11-12T22:35:00.001-05:00

In Alabama, 9 out of every 10 whites voted for John McCain. Alabama: Oops! You're racist!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/us/politics/11south.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

More on the 'center-right America' myth

2008-11-12T10:15:00.000-05:00

Alert readers will note this author's earlier remarks on the myth of a 'center-right America,' a concept being talked up by conservatives who are mad that they lost last week.

http://thirdamendmentwatch.blogspot.com/2008/11/and-enough-with-this-center-right.html

There is no center-right majority.

To begin with, we just -- and honestly, this was like 15 hours ago -- elected a liberal Democrat to the presidency.

Beyond that -- the support Republicans often provide for this argument is that when asked, more people identify themselves as "conservative" than as "liberal." Well, duh. The GOP spent 30 years turning the word "liberal" into a swear word. Because we were limp and ineffectual, it worked.

Well, Rasmussen just polled on this question, and turns out I'm right.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/43_say_it_s_best_to_compare_a_candidate_to_reagan

For most U.S. voters, the only thing worse than calling a candidate a conservative is calling him a liberal.

[...]

Liberal is the only one of the five political labels surveyed that is viewed more negatively than positively, which likely explains why nearly all liberal politicians now refer to themselves as progressives.

These findings are roughly comparable to those in a survey in July 2007 after a Democratic presidential debate in which Hillary Clinton insisted she would rather be called a progressive than a liberal.

At the low end, just 19% regard it as a positive to describe a candidate as politically liberal. Thirty-six percent (36%) say it's a negative reference. For 41%, it falls somewhere between negative and positive.

To reiterate the point here: Anyone who uses "Americans prefer 'conservatives' to 'liberals'" as evidence of a center-right America is cheating and lying because 'liberal' is a poison word that makes people forget about the policies that a conservative or progressive pol would espouse.

The place we can see Russia from? It's Obama country

2008-11-11T11:26:00.002-05:00

Looking over the vote-by-county maps, a friend and I noticed that Oklahoma was probably the only state in the country in which Obama failed to carry a single county -- but that it was impossible to know for sure because Alaska only reports a statewide tally.

So I dug up the PDFs for each of Alaska's 40 state House districts (http://www.elect.alaska.net/)... and what I found is pretty amusing.

Obama apparently won only five Alaska state House districts. Three would have been easy guesses:

District 3 (Juneau, 3334 to 1932)
District 23 (Anchorage Downtown/Rogers Park, 2457 to 1869)
District 26 (Anchorage Turnagain/Inlet View, 3069 to 3001)

The other two, though, are more of a surprise. (District map: http://www.state.ak.us/redistricting/amendedfinal/maps/statewide.pdf; ignore the letters, as they refer to state Senate districts).

Districts 38 and 39 are located on Alaska's western edge.

District 38 (Bethel, 2059 to 1727)
District 39 (Bering Straits, 2296 to 1996)

Anyone remember the CNN piece about Little Diomede, Alaska?

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg0l-PinkZE

This is the island from which Americans can, indeed, literally see Russia. Little Diomede is in District 39. We carried the island itself, 23 to 4.

Turns out Little Diomede itself is a Democratic enclave, having voted 25 to 11 for Kerry/Edwards in 2004 (http://www.elections.alaska.gov/04genr/data/sovc/hd39.pdf). But -- big picture -- we actually flipped District 38 and District 39 overall. Both districts were Bush/Cheney country last time around (District 38 went Bush 1792 to 1723 and District 39, 2881 to 2365).

Bottom line: the folks whom Sarah Palin thinks ought to know Russia best (because, hey, it's right there!)... thought maybe it would be better if she weren't a 72-year-old heartbeat away from the Oval Office.

As usual, The Onion said it better than anyone else.

2008-11-08T14:37:00.001-05:00

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/kobe_bryant_scores_25_in_holy_shit

Bryant, who got off to a slow start early, but managed to find his touch late in the third, incredible. A black president for a nation whose entire history has been haunted by the specter of slavery and plagued by racism since before its inception. That this happened in our lifetime is remarkable; that it happened within 50 years of a time when segregation was still considered an acceptable institution is astonishing. Absolutely astonishing. This is an achievement on par with the moon landing.

Bryant closed out the fourth quarter with eight points in five minutes.

Perriello wins

2008-11-08T14:13:00.001-05:00

Received last night the Perriello campaign. Chalk another one up for the good guys!

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Tom Perriello <tomp@perrielloforcongress.com>
Date: Fri, Nov 7, 2008 at 5:29 PM
Subject: Stop hitting refresh

Friends, family and supporters.

We finally have an official tally and bipartisan confirmation from every county (less than 10 ballots left to confirm!), and the outcome is now certain: we have won the race and will be going to Washington to represent this amazing district. Some are already calling ours the biggest upset of the year and a bellwether of a new kind of politics in Virginia. I know some of you have taken a blow to work productivity as you hit refresh every few minutes, checking results. This has been a team effort from the start, and this victory belongs to all of us.

Rep. Goode has the right to challenge the outcome and probably will, so we will remain fully activated to protect our victory, but we have every reason to believe that this result will hold.

It is hard for me to express how much your support and your vote mean to me. I set out a year ago to show that a better kind of politics is possible. We wanted to show that Americans care more about an authentic sense of right and wrong than an artificial sense of right and left. We wanted to show that people are smarter and more decent than our politicians and media give them credit for. We wanted to show that our politics is capable of caring about jobs in Danville and genocide in Darfur – we have the capacity to promote the common good.

Re-living it one more time on a Friday afternoon. Have a good weekend, everyone.

2008-11-07T14:04:00.002-05:00

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27546027#27546027

Photos from Grant Park!

2008-11-07T00:16:00.001-05:00

All of the photos are courtesy of my pal in Chicago. She's contributing often enough that she may need a blogger code name.

President-elect Barack Obama.

2008-11-07T00:15:00.001-05:00

We win.

2008-11-07T00:14:00.000-05:00

There's just that one guy not watching the screen.

2008-11-07T00:13:00.001-05:00

Jib arm of freedom.

2008-11-07T00:12:00.001-05:00

Folks in the crowd.

2008-11-07T00:11:00.001-05:00

100,000 people -- and no one could have said something to Michelle about that dress?

2008-11-07T00:09:00.001-05:00

Giant Screen we can believe in... or Giant Screen we need?

2008-11-07T00:07:00.001-05:00

"Obama Presidential Rally" -- a stop on the Blue Line.

2008-11-07T00:06:00.003-05:00

Art Museum minus Bueller plus strategically arranged lights.

2008-11-07T00:06:00.001-05:00

USA: The North American country Sarah Palin can name.

2008-11-07T00:05:00.001-05:00

In which I agree with Baptists. Wait, what?

2008-11-06T23:02:00.001-05:00

Richard Land has gotten himself into worlds of trouble lately for daring to not-demonize every Democrat alive. So he gets credit for that.

I'm also totally on board with his call for Barack Obama to lead the way on 95-10. Obama made a lot of hay with cultural moderates by working with various groups to include both pro-choice and abortion reduction language in the party platform.

This shouldn't be the first thing Obama does, but it should be on the four-year list.

http://www.sojo.net/blog/godspolitics/?p=3592&title

This bill would:

• Establish a toll-free number to direct women to places that will provide support during and following their pregnancy.

• Provide child care to low-income and student parents.

• Provide parenting education in maternity group homes.

• Make the Adoption Tax Credits permanent.

• Ensure that pregnant women are not denied health care by insurance companies and that coverage is continued for newborns.

• Codify the regulation that extends coverage under the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) to low-income pregnant women and unborn children.

• Increase funding for the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Nutrition Program.

• Provide grants to institutions of higher education to fund pregnant and parenting student services.

• Provide new mothers with free home visits by registered nurses.

Instant redemption, just add Obama

2008-11-06T12:59:00.001-05:00

AP: "Suddenly, It May Be Cool To Be American Again"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/05/ap-suddenlyly-it-may-be-c_n_141631.html

"She was a stranger, and she kissed me. Just for being an American."

Perriello update

2008-11-05T15:25:00.001-05:00

http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=9297265&nav=menu368_10_9

At 230pm, Goode (R) was leading by six votes.

At 305pm, Perriello (Catholic D) was leading by 30 votes.

Wow. This is high drama. Go Tom.

Was he black?

2008-11-05T14:12:00.000-05:00

What this means to our children and grandchildren. Having watched yesterday's amazing events unfold in the presence of my one-year-old niece, the first paragraph really resonates here.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167571

A group of New York City schoolchildren were at an event marking the 150th birthday of Theodore Roosevelt, naturalist and president, and at the end of the visit one of the kids raised his hand. "I have a question," he said. "Was he black?"

And enough with this 'center-right country' bullcrap

2008-11-05T13:45:00.001-05:00

Dean's pushing back right now against the "center-right majority" horsepoo. There is no center-right majority.

To begin with, we just -- and honestly, this was like 15 hours ago -- elected a liberal Democrat to the presidency.

Beyond that -- the support Republicans often provide for this argument is that when asked, more people identify themselves as "conservative" than as "liberal." Well, duh. The GOP spent 30 years turning the word "liberal" into a swear word. Because we were limp and ineffectual, it worked. "Liberal" is a bad word in America right now. You'll meet a ton of conservative Democrats these days. You might even be one. Seen a "liberal Republican" lately? Not since Eisenhower's day. "Liberal Republicans" are so afraid themselves of the word "liberal" that they have rebranded themselves "moderate Republicans." The media and the Democrats themselves have bought into this.

If we really want to poll on it, we need to use a different word -- "progressive" is one, although I'm open to other suggestions -- or just ask questions about different issues and how people feel. When we've done that already, they've revealed that this is -- if not a center-left country -- then at least simply a centrist country.

So... with a 12-hour break for celebration... I'm once again back on patrol: Quit lying, Republicans.

Dean at the National Press Club

2008-11-05T13:34:00.001-05:00

Live just now:

"I think it is a mandate.... I think it's a mandate that the political class in this country has an obligation to young people in this country to stop fighting over stuff that might have been a big issue 25 years ago, but it isn't anymore."

Everything but the presidential stuff

2008-11-05T13:15:00.000-05:00

This is only kind of in order.

Of regional interest:

THE OHIO HOUSE IS NOW IN DEMOCRATIC HANDS, probably 53-46. This is an amazing shift. Key wins in Ohio House 91 and (apparently) Ohio House 92.

In Ohio 16, the superb John Boccieri won the seat of retiring Republican Ralph Regula. I can't emphasize enough with this one how we're replacing someone who shouldn't be in Washington with someone who should be in Washington.

In Ohio 01, oh my gosh oh my gosh oh my gosh, we got Steve Chabot. Congrats to state Rep. Steve Dreihaus. Any foothold in southwest Ohio is going to be shaky, but it's better than no foothold at all.

In Ohio 15, Mary Jo Kilroy is down, but it's close and CNN hasn't called it. Rats. Ohio 15 is the new PA 06. For whatever reason, we just can't get this one.

In Virginia, my man Tom Perriello -- a Catholic Democrat -- is either up or down by some two-digit or very, very small three-digit number of votes. This appears headed for a recount (recounts can be requested by either candidate and will be taxpayer-funded if the margin is less than one half of one percent). Really rooting for Perriello, the only congressional candidate to whom I gave (a very small amount of) money this fall. http://www.perrielloforcongress.com.

More absolutely great news in Virginia: In addition to picking up VA-11 (Davis' old seat, in NoVa) as expected... Democrat Glenn Nye nudged out Republican incumbent Thelma Drake downstate. If Perriello prevails, Virginia sends a majority Democratic delegation to Congress.

On Maryland's Eastern Shore, although no single county went for Obama (a couple came close), Democrat Frank Kratovil -- endorsed by ousted Republican Rep. Wayne Gilchrist -- appears to have triumphed over Andy Harris. He's up about 1000 votes with 100 percent of precincts reported by CNN to have been counted. Maryland's down to one GOP congressperson if this happens.

Maryland voters approved slots and early voting.

In Pennsylvania 03, Kathy Dahlkemper took out conservative Phil English.

In Pennsylvania 04, Jason Altmire wins a rematch against Missy Hart.

In Pennsylvania 11, Paul Kanjorski survives a tough challenge from race-baiter and all-around bad human being Lou Barletta.

In Pennsylvania 12, John Murtha survives.

Here's a key point about Pennsylvania: When the maps were redrawn in 2001, the GOP tried to take us from 11 Dems, 10 Republicans... to 13 Republicans, 6 Democrats. Now, we scored one big win in 2002, with Tim Holden defeating George Gekas in a race that pitted incumbent against incumbent. But it was still 12-7 in favor of the Republicans. By picking up 04, 07, 08 and 10 in 2006 and 03 this year... it's now 12-7 Democrats. On a map that was supposed to be 13-6 Republicans. Rick Santorum's dirty, nasty legacy is nothing. It's nothing.

In Ohio 15, Mary Jo Kilroy's race has gone to an automatic recount. She trails.

In Pennsylvania state legislative elections, Republican Jeff Piccola held off Judy Hirsh, 52-48. This was a pretty nasty election and Piccola sunk low, but in practice he's been at least a principled conservative instead of just saying what happens when you go skiing.

Also, you can't stop Bill DeWeese. The embattled state House Majority Leader won re-election. It appears that the Dems will retain a narrow, narrow majority in the Pennsylvania House (http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2008/11/democrats_appear_to_hold_penns.html#more), with each side poaching four of the other's seats for sure but Dems leading in two not-yet-called races. A disappointing loss is Dan Surra (D-Elk County), even though Elk went for Obama.

Democrat John Morganelli came close, but not close enough against incumbent Attorney General Tom Corbett (52-46). Corbett, of course, is a frontrunner to run for governor in 2010. Dems did retain the Auditor General's office (Jack Wagner, incumbent, also possibly a factor in the 2010 governor's race) and the Treasurer's office (newcomer Rob McCord).

Elsewhere:

In California, Prop 8 (gay marriage ban) apparently was approved. I saw that exit polls showed that blacks broke heavily in favor of the ban... while other ethnic groups were split. Law of unintended consequences as far as some Obama supporters might see this.

In Minnesota, on Coleman-Franken, where it's Coleman by like 500 votes: the Secretary of State says an automatic recount won't begin until mid-November and may run into December. The people of Minnesota are not going to be pleased with this, as I'm pretty sure they're tired of this race. From Franken's press release, under his own name (I'm amused):

Under Minnesota state law, we will now enter into an automatic statewide canvass and recount. It will be the first one since 1962, when I was 11 years old. I remember that year very clearly for two reasons. The recount between Elmer L. Anderson and Karl Rolvaag. And the Gophers were in the Rose Bowl that year.

Also, it looks like that horrible Bachmann woman survived.

Looks like a Senate runoff in Georgia (because the winner there is required to get 50 percent plus one). TPM:

10:00 AM ... We're still trying to get more clear word on what's going on down in Georgia. Last night there were reports of up to two million, or possibly only 600,000 early votes left to be counted. Now we're hearing it's more like in the tens of thousands, though it's not completely clear to me whether the difference is simply a matter of a lot being counted overnight. In any case, there seems a good chance that the as yet uncounted votes will pull Sen. Saxby Chambliss under 50%, thus forcing a run-off.

10:16 AM ... AJC says a runoff looks likely in Georgia senate race. (http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/11/04/georgia_us_senate_election.html)

In Connecticut 04, Chris Shays bites it. No more Republicans from New England in the U.S. House.

In Sacramento, Calif., former NBAer Kevin Johnson will be the city's first black mayor. Thanks, Deadspin.

2008-11-05T09:08:00.001-05:00

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Yes, we did

2008-11-05T01:32:00.001-05:00

2008-11-04T23:32:00.000-05:00

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2008-11-04T23:22:00.001-05:00

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2008-11-04T23:21:00.001-05:00

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2008-11-04T23:19:00.002-05:00

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2008-11-04T23:19:00.001-05:00

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2008-11-04T22:24:00.000-05:00

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2008-11-04T22:06:00.000-05:00

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2008-11-04T22:01:00.001-05:00

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2008-11-04T21:43:00.000-05:00

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2008-11-04T21:36:00.001-05:00

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2008-11-04T21:29:00.000-05:00

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2008-11-04T21:01:00.001-05:00

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2008-11-04T20:21:00.001-05:00

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2008-11-04T20:10:00.001-05:00

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2008-11-04T19:25:00.000-05:00

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2008-11-04T18:59:00.000-05:00

bellwether.

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2008-11-04T17:24:00.002-05:00

liquor.

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2008-11-04T17:24:00.001-05:00

beer.

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2008-11-04T14:52:00.000-05:00

starbucks line.

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2008-11-04T14:42:00.000-05:00

full.

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2008-11-04T14:27:00.000-05:00

not the polynesian sauce.

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2008-11-04T13:54:00.000-05:00

hail.

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Chuck Todd's five things to watch for tonight...

2008-11-04T12:08:00.000-05:00

...only two are directly related to the EV count; he's already looking past this evening. Paraphrasing from the segment I just watched:

(1) Virginia.

(2) The "McCain Triangle" if Virginia goes blue: He'll have to win Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina to have some hope of carrying the night.)

(3) The Dems' push for 60 in the Senate.

(4) The GOP as a regional party -- do Republicans hold only the South? Do they even hold the South?

and

(5) Fundamental realignment of the parties -- if, in fact, there is cracking of the Republican base in all corners.

2008-11-04T10:01:00.000-05:00

decked out.

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2008-11-04T10:00:00.000-05:00

in line.

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2008-11-04T09:58:00.000-05:00

free sandwich ahead.

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2008-11-04T09:57:00.001-05:00

irony.

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2008-11-04T09:54:00.000-05:00

morning joe.

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Why it matters

2008-11-03T23:43:00.002-05:00

-- A strengthened middle class.

-- Better jobs.

-- More jobs.

-- Better health care.

-- More health care.

-- A rehabilitated global reputation.

-- Just wars.

-- Fair-minded Supreme Court Justices.

-- Fair-minded appeals court judges.

-- Attention to poverty.

-- Energy independence.

-- Affordable college.

-- Better public schools.

-- Stewardship of the Earth.

-- Fair trade.

-- Intelligence and reason in the Oval Office.

-- Our values reflected.

-- Proof to our kids that it's not the color of our skin -- it's the content of our character.

Change we can believe in.

The change we need.

Nothing left to say. Go vote.

"Negative flakeage rate"

2008-11-03T17:05:00.001-05:00

This is the technical term Jon Carson -- Obama's director of field operations -- used a short time ago in an interview at the Chicago HQ... to describe the dynamic in which all of the volunteers who had signed up are showing up -- and they're all bringing other people with them.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eiC53HBWDaA

Final NBC/WSJ: Us by eight.

2008-11-02T23:52:00.002-05:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567494708692025.html

A helpful graphic shows why this is the gold standard poll -- how close the final NBC/WSJ poll always is to the final result. It may be worth pointing out that no candidate for either party since 1998 has actually topped 50 percent in this last survey.

My final map: 356-182.

2008-11-02T19:10:00.004-05:00

Obama 356, McCain 182.

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/14737/

><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.

I added Ohio, North Carolina and North Dakota. The first two had been my "next two to fall." The third addition, North Dakota, is there because we're running neck and neck in the polling... there hasn't been a lot of polling... and we started spending a bunch of additional money there.

I really like North Carolina to break our way at this point. It's a place where we can over-perform.

Last states through the gate, then:

North Dakota (closest -- last horse into the stable)

Ohio (second closest)

Florida (third closest)

Next to yield if things go really well (in this order):

Missouri

Indiana

Nebraska-02

Arizona

Montana

Georgia

West Virginia

South Dakota

Louisiana

Past Louisiana, I'm not really sure where we'd go. So I guess we max out at 424.

Zogby lectures Drudge et al

2008-11-02T13:37:00.001-05:00

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

In a way, I'm sure Zogby doesn't mind the hits and attention that come from Drudge. On the other hand, it's painting him as the Lone Pollster giving McCain a shot, and when Obama wins big on Tuesday, this will not help Zogby's reputation.

OH: Bellwether county hints at backing Obama

2008-11-02T09:25:00.001-05:00

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/11/02/ohio_obama/

NEW STRAITSVILLE, Ohio -- The Saturday afternoon scene seemed ripped out of a Republican playbook. A campaign canvasser wearing a black cowboy hat stood on the threshold of a mobile home in a hardscrabble, virtually all-white rural county talking about God's will and the White House with a retiree who once was a fundamentalist Baptist preacher.

"I think God had it all planned out for Barack-o to be our man," said Tom Morris, 73, a lifelong Republican whose career was mostly as a self-employed truck driver and electrician. Eighty-two-year-old retired coal miner Rufus Fultz, one of the most active Obama volunteers in Perry County, chimed in, "I believe it too."

Very encouraging graph

2008-11-01T17:30:00.001-04:00

Gray is where Gore was at this point. Red is where Kerry was. Blue is where Obama is. Pretty amazing when you think about it: our candidate hasn't been ahead-with-three-days-to-go since 1996. And we're five points ahead right now.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/campaign_08_vs_04_and_00_updat.php

VA 05: NRCC jittery about Goode's race against Perriello

2008-11-01T17:22:00.001-04:00

This is as good a race as any to use for the "where is the line" conversation in the House. I love Tom Perriello. He's the only congressional candidate to whom I've given money this year (you could too: https://services.myngp.com/NGPOnlineServices/contribution.aspx?X=R4CeThSmDKI9Pg4TpuyYA7xlwkOxee48&m=perriello). This race was #50 out of 50 in Chris Cillizza's House Line a week or so ago and was up to #44 in the final list (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/10/the_final_house_line_the_top_5.html#more).

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/01/1625186.aspx

Yet another sign McCain and the GOP is in trouble in Virginia? The NRCC is sending out an attack release on the Democratic foe of 5th District GOPRep. Virgil Goode. The press release slams Goode's Democratic challenger, Tom Perriello, connecting him with billionnaire investor George Soros and calling him "someone who feels more at home on the Upper Westside than he does in the heart of Virginia."

It's probably unlikely that Goode will lose his race next Tuesday; the nonpartisan Cook Political Report now lists the seat as a "Lean Republican" race.

But it's a reminder of just how much trouble the GOP is in Virginia, and in other seats nationwide where Republican incumbents long considered safe are now the subject of NRCC resources.

Cleaning my bathroom

2008-11-01T16:53:00.001-04:00

Why so few posts here this weekend? I gotta be honest -- I'm too on-edge to consume internets right now. About an hour ago, I actually chose cleaning my bathroom (with sponge, pictured) over firing up HuffPost or TPM.

There are a couple scenarios that are being described as plausible McCain victory paths but are, in fact, not plausible McCain victory paths.

We lose Pennsylvania: Not gonna happen. The closest polls have been Obama +4 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, Thursday, came out on the same day as we were +12 in a CNN/Time poll) and Obama +4 (Rasmussen, today, came out on the same day as we were still +8 in the Morning Call tracker). Things are closing slightly -- but not quickly enough for McCain.
We lose Pennsylvania: Also doesn't matter. Silver says we've got an 89 percent chance of winning even if we lose Pennsylvania (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/pennsylvania-sanity-check.html).

And there are a couple scenarios that really are plausible McCain victory paths. These are the only ones.

McCain wins every single toss-up state and reproduces the Bush 2004 map exactly. That means he wins Ohio (which he's losing), he wins Florida (which he's losing), he wins Colorado (which he's losing), he wins Iowa (which he's losing), he wins Nevada (which he's losing) and he wins New Mexico (which he's losing). So he somehow wins six states he's losing by significant margins right now, in addition to losing several states that appear to be true toss-ups right now (North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana).
We don't show up to vote.
Massive voter suppression -- on a scale no observer currently has contemplated (that is, a scale that could foul up the six states above as well as Pennsylvania).
We don't show up to vote.

All of these are both extremely, extremely unlikely outcomes... and yet... at least slightly possible outcomes. And that's why I can't read the news today. This race ought to be won. Everything that could have been done up to this point has been done. As long as we all vote, everything we can do between now and the end will have been done. The only thing left to say is -- three days, seven minutes to go.

Nate Silver on the anatomy of a polling disaster

2008-10-30T21:46:00.001-04:00

Nate Silver is doing the best job out there. He is another one who calls things by their right names.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/anatomy-of-polling-disaster.html

The point of all of this is that just because some pollster puts some numbers together in a PDF doesn't mean that they have any particular idea what they're doing.

The cure for hyperventilating

2008-10-30T15:50:00.001-04:00

A few important things to keep in mind, however the polls move over the next four days.

(1) It is not necessary that we win by 10 points. 51-47 is basically an electoral rout; see Bush 2004.

(2) The race is decided in the states, anyway, and the spreads in the state that matter are in many cases wider than the national spread.

(3) All of the states that are in play -- ALL of them -- were red in 2004. In a sense, it does not *matter* if we are "only" winning North Carolina by one, or whatever. If we are "only" winning North Carolina -- a pretty darn red state -- by one point, then we are by definition winning Virginia by half a dozen points, and Colorado by half a dozen points, and Ohio by a few points, and goodness, we really only need about one or two more states than we had in 2004 in order to win the election.

This isn't to say that a win is guaranteed... just a reminder that a close win is a win, and we ought to be working as though the race will come down to a single vote!

Palin to Penn State's Spanier: Be gone with you

2008-10-30T13:52:00.001-04:00

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6142173&page=1

"He's a big Democrat. Why would he want to meet Palin?" campaign aide Russ Bermel allegedly asked a school employee who was hoping to make arrangements for president Graham B. Spanier to meet Palin, according to Spanier's office.

[...]

Some might say that makes it an odd time to snub the president of the state's largest university. The school enrolls 40,000 students and counts a quarter-million alumni living in Pennsylvania alone.

"I welcome eminent visitors to our campus everyday, including lots of Republicans, but [the McCain-Palin campaign] didn't want me to greet her or even attend the event," said Spanier.

Nate Silver asks...

2008-10-30T12:07:00.001-04:00

What to Watch For [in Illinois]: "It's not a Cubs' World Championship, but most Illinoisans will take it; what kind of odds could you have gotten in 1908 that a black dude would get elected president before the Cubs won the Series again?"

Fair point.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/road-to-270-illinois.html

Who's left?

2008-10-30T02:47:00.001-04:00

From David Gregory's show Wednesday.

Seriously, there is something wrong with Southwestern PA

2008-10-29T10:51:00.001-04:00

I don't understand what's happening to the place I'm from.

Look at these numbers from the latest F&M (formerly Keystone) poll. The topline is Obama 53, McCain 40 for likely voters (51-39 with registered voters).

Philadelphia: Obama 75, McCain 19
Northeast: Obama 52, McCain 33
Allegheny: Obama 50, McCain 36
Southwest: McCain 50, Obama 42
Northwest: Obama 47, McCain 40
Central: Obama 46, McCain 44
Southeast: Obama 58, McCain 37

What the eff?

It was one thing when all -- all -- of the socially conservative regions of the state... from Williamsport to Uniontown to parts of Bucks County... went with Hillary in the primary. But look. The Northwest (Erie) and Northeast (S/W-B) have come around... and Obama's even winning or tied in extremely conservative, never-voted-for-a-Democrat-ever Central PA. But somehow, there's now something separating Beaver from Erie, Greensburg from Scranton.

Could it be anything besides straight-up racism?

Can anyone talk me off a cliff here?

Most badass photo of Obama yet

2008-10-28T21:12:00.001-04:00

From the Obama rally in Chester, Pa. today. Check out the third picture in this album.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/obamas-day-in-the-rain-ph_n_138677.html

Just so we're all up to speed on this --

2008-10-28T21:11:00.001-04:00

...yes, the Republicans are trying to tell Democrats to vote on Wednesday, and yes, they're threatening that people with parking tickets and outstanding warrants will get arrested at the polls. This is standard fare, but for anyone who's new to the game -- don't be shocked. When they win close ones, they do it by cheating. When they lose close ones, it's because their cheating came up short.

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/10/phony-flier-says-virginians-vote-different-days

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/as-election-nears-dirty-t_n_138607.html

Hey, Cincinnati Enquirer: Go f--- yourself.

2008-10-27T20:58:00.001-04:00

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20081024/EDIT03/810260303

"A strong government hand is needed to assure that wealth is distributed more equitably," Obama says. That's a zero-sum, central-control mentality.

Except Obama never said that.

http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/cincinnati_enquirer_s_endorsement_based_on_a_myth

There's just one small problem according to the blog "Liberal Oasis", Obama never said that. The line initially appeared in a Wall Street Journal article about Obama, but it's not a quote. It has, however, been used as a quote in one of those negative emails that have been going around about Obama.

The Cincinnati Enquirer is a purveyor of falsehoods and I hope it shuts down someday. Other than Paul Daugherty's sports columns, it is totally useless.

Opie, Andy and the Fonz weigh in

2008-10-27T12:07:00.002-04:00

Let us "Aaay!"

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/cc65ed650d

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

Cast of The Wire campaigns for Obama in NC

2008-10-27T11:38:00.001-04:00

Cast of best show ever campaigns for best candidate ever. Synergy!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/27/the-wire-cast-campaigns-f_n_138133.html

Another spot-on report from Western PA

2008-10-27T11:15:00.001-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/us/politics/27pennsylvania.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

"I'm no racist, but I'm not crazy about him either," said Mr. Piroli, 77. "I don't know, maybe 'cause he's black."

He winces at himself. "We was raised and worked with the black, the Serb," he said. "It was a regular league of nations. And the economy now, it's terrible."

"I've got to vote for him," he said finally.

Him? "The Democrat, Obama," Mr. Piroli replied. "I can't be stupid."

Emphasis mine. I guess this is what I've been pleased to see reporters get right: In Western Pennsylvania, the racial tension really isn't just like it is in the Deep South, the Mid-South or even West Virginia. We have people back home who still can't wrap their heads around working with the Serbs. Yet they're also voters who -- when absolutely forced to think about it -- come to the conclusion that they'll vote for the Democrat when the economy is bad no matter what he looks like.

This is the third piece I've seen -- the others are below -- that have done a really good job of summarizing what I feel like I've heard from my own Western PA family, friends and acquaintances. What a puzzling place we come from.

I don't have any kind of overarching moral pronouncement. Half of me wants to mow down all of these people for not keeping up with such things as the microwave and power windows and freaking Civil Rights. And the other half of me says... well, if the election goes the way it looks like it's going to go, the country is well served at this time, and if Obama's about the future, why shouldn't we focus our eyes there as well. Eight years from now, a lot of these voters-with-misgivings will be gone, and in their place will be a bunch of newly minted 18-year-olds who will know nothing of an era when a black man (or, as they'll learn in history class, a white woman, or really anyone who's good enough and smart enough) couldn't be President. As King said, "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95297635

Rich Miner pulls up to the corn stand. He says he has thought long and hard about the election. Miner, 68, works for the local sewage authority and voted for Hillary Clinton in the primary. These days, he says, he looks at McCain and sees a carbon copy of President Bush, which he doesn't like.

"Obama? I guess we take a chance on him. He's a rookie. But he sounds good," Miner says.

But this isn't an easy decision for him. He says there was a time he might not have supported a black candidate.

"I myself was one time very prejudiced," Miner says. "But I ain't no more. I just changed my attitude. I've always been around colored people. I work with them. I've always worked with them, and I found early on that blacks sort of took advantage of the situation. I don't know, anymore — I think they're OK as long as they do their end of the job. I don't see nothing wrong with that."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-western-pennsylvania.html

So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

Prebuttal to Palin special ed

2008-10-23T23:59:00.001-04:00

So I guess tomorrow Sarah Palin's going to call for full funding of IDEA (the primary legislative engine for special education). As you might imagine, I'm all for this. But this crowd isn't willing to fully fund No Child Left Behind, which was their idea in the first place. Why are they to be believed now?

Larry Sabato's toss-up states: OH, MO, NC, ND.

2008-10-23T10:20:00.003-04:00

Finally, a pundit who's telling the truth.

(Don't stop working hard. Just be aware that anyone who says Obama isn't winning by a lot... is lying.)

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Now, let's take a look at our Electoral College update. Just two states have changed categories, which might come as a surprise to people who follow the breathless news reports about all the supposedly dramatic ups and downs in the campaign. At this late juncture, most of it is meaningless background noise. For example, we're long past the point when the vice presidential candidates are going to affect very much. Whatever impact they have has already been "priced in" to the presidential candidates' standing. Palin's goofs and Biden's gaffes are sideshows, for the most part.

Of particular interest:

The McCain campaign and the [Virginia] GOP appear to have had a death wish. McCain's staff refused to believe Virginia was truly competitive for too long, and the McCain-Palin visits were few. McCain's brother called Northern Virginians "Commies" and one of McCain's most prominent spokespersons said they were not the "real Virginia." Generally, it is difficult to win the votes of people you are insulting.

The Virginia Republican party is also completely outclassed by the state's Democrats in money and organization. The GOP is being run by a very young, fire-breathing chairman who publicly drew an absurd link between Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden--drawing angry rebukes from the top echelon of the McCain campaign as well as virtually all the senior Republican elected officials in the state. Republicans in Virginia have simply not adapted to the new moderate reality of this Mid-Atlantic state, the twelfth largest in the nation. They insist on running too far to the right, as though this were the Virginia of the Old South. It's not selling anymore.

McCain supporters just mashing keyboards instead of using voter tool

2008-10-20T22:32:00.001-04:00

http://www.techpresident.com/blog/entry/31846/obama_neighbor_to_neighbor_vs_mccain_voter_to_voter_not_a_fair_fight

Right now, both the Obama and McCain campaigns are hard at work mobilizing their supporters to get out and talk to voters, either by knocking on doors or making phone calls. And both campaigns have built online tools designed to make it easy for volunteers to generate call lists or walk lists. Obama's is called "Neighbor to Neighbor"; McCain's is called "Voter to Voter."

[...]

If you do a Google search for the words Obama and "neighbor to neighbor," Google returns 479,000 hits. A search for McCain and "voter to voter" returns 325 hits. In both cases, the link to the actual tool is the top hit, which is good, but these search results indicate a great deal more conversation about the Obama tool--and presumably usage.

Direct links to the tools themselves are another interesting indicator. According to Google, the total number of sites linking to my.barackobama.com/n2n is 475, with 396 of them being blogs. The total number of links to www.johnmccain.com/v2v is 18, with none from blogs.

No blog links to the main tool by which McCain supporters are supposed to be connecting to undecideds. This campaign is so 1988.

OH: Plain Dealer endorsed Obama this past weekend

2008-10-20T20:14:00.001-04:00

Another endorsement I'm particularly happy about. The PD did not endorse in 2004.

http://blog.cleveland.com/pdopinion/2008/10/obama_for_president.html

Obama has challenged Americans to dream and to hope, to be realistic in the face of great problems and to trust in one another. To minorities and other Americans on the margins, he offers living proof that this nation can fulfill its ideals. To the world, he offers quite literally a different face, one that embodies America's diversity and boundless opportunity.

That is a recipe for the fresh leadership this nation desperately needs. And it is why we urge his election as the 44th president of the United States.

Here's as current and comprehensive a list of newspaper endorsements as probably exists:

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230

We're up 112 to 39. Obama-backing papers in our part of the valley, with circulation numbers (B = backed Bush in 2004, K = backed Kerry in 2004):

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
The Washington Post (K): 673,180

OHIO
Akron Beacon-Journal (K): 119,929
The (Toledo) Blade (K): 119,901
Dayton Daily News (K): 116,690
The (Canton) Repository (B): 65,789
Times-Reporter (New Philadelphia) (B): 22,428
Springfield News-Sun (K): 24,684
The Plain Dealer (Cleveland): 330,280

PENNSYLVANIA
The Daily Item (Sunbury): 24,879
The Express-Times (Easton) (B): 44,561
Philadelphia Inquirer (K): 334,150
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (K): 214,374

VIRGINIA
Falls Church News-Press (K): 30,500

WEST VIRGINIA
The Charleston Gazette (K): 48,061
Huntington Herald-Dispatch (K): 27,463

(Jeez... I can't believe how close the Daily Item is in circulation to the Herald-Dispatch!)

The only newspaper of regional consequence that has endorsed McCain: the Columbus Dispatch. Proving once again why even though it's in the state capital and the largest city and the only economically viable section of the Buckeye State and has all the natural advantages... it still sucks.

Martin Sheen on the 2008 presidential election

2008-10-20T19:44:00.002-04:00

We can't vote for President Bartlet. But really, I think I might go
for Obama in an Obama-Bartlet primary anyway. It would be a tough
call.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGSxGJ0Rlnk

"It was totally about race"

2008-10-20T19:28:00.001-04:00

Rush Limbaugh on the Powell endorsement: "It was totally about race."

In case there was any doubt left:

Everything Rush Limbaugh says is totally about race.

If you believe otherwise, you are a fool, or you are good at convincing yourself that you're not a racist.

You know what? Paying taxes IS patriotic.

2008-10-20T19:22:00.001-04:00

I'm so tired of this.

Let me get this straight. Some of you -- you want to fight two wars at the same time. You want to have awesome schools and robust police forces and smooth roads. You want to power through the Bush recession. You want to continue to be the world's only superpower.

And you don't want to pay taxes.

Tu stultus es.

What is your problem with sacrifice, America? Your unwillingness to sacrifice is a global embarrassment. After September 11, President Bush told you to go to the mall. When he went to war with Afghanistan, he should have raised your taxes. Then for the war in Iraq, he should have raised your taxes again. Wars are not free. President Bush is a moral failure because he told you that he could cut your taxes while America was fighting two wars.

Recovering from a Bush recession isn't free, either.

To say nothing of any of the everyday things that face Americans -- like schools, police and roads. Those things are not free. And you are horrible, horrible people to want to push the true costs to your children and grandchildren. You are scoundrels.

How dare some of you say that paying taxes isn't patriotic. How dare you. If you don't want to help pay for our military, for our schools... get out.

And how dare John McCain and Sarah Palin perpetrate this fraud. They are not fit for the offices they seek.

McCain-Palin supporters now physically attacking reporters

2008-10-17T10:46:00.001-04:00

This should come as no surprise.

http://joekillian.wordpress.com/2008/10/17/how-i-became-joe-sixpack/

And then he kicked the back of my leg, buckling my right knee and sending me sprawling onto the ground.

From my position there I saw the bottoms of a number of feet almost accidentally stomping me to death as the two political camps screamed back and forth, the music continued to blare and some of the Obama crowd moved the large bearded man and his friends away. When I was helped to my feet the bearded man was walking away quickly.

For a moment I considered running the bloated, twelve-sandwich eating prick down and beating the living hell out of him…and then I remembered that I'm a reporter, how much I enjoy being gainfully employed and how hard it would be to keep my job if I got into a fistfight with a guy at a political rally.

So instead I limped off to try to find a security guard or cop.

When I did the guy was nowhere to be found.

"He's this big fat guy with a brown beard and he's wearing a McCain-Palin shirt and hat," I said.

And then felt like an idiot. I was surrounded by people who fit that description.

OH: PA: Politico swing county polling -- includes Franklin OH and Bucks PA

2008-10-17T10:39:00.001-04:00

In three of these cases, we've got very good news.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14657.html

In Bucks County, a politically competitive but historically Republican suburb that shares a border with Philadelphia, Obama is running ahead of McCain, 47-41 percent. In 2004, Democrat John F. Kerry carried the county by a slim 51percent to 48 percent.

Obama bests McCain 50 percent to 42 percent in Prince William County, a Washington, D.C. suburb that voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Between 1976 and 2004, Prince William County supported Republican presidential candidates by an average margin of 18 points.

Obama also has opened up a wide 53 percent to 37 percent advantage over McCain in suburban St. Louis County, which does not include Missouri's largest city, St. Louis. In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry, the Democratic nominee, carried St. Louis County, the most populous county in the state, 54 percent to 45 percent.

In Ohio's Franklin County, the state's second-most populous county after Cleveland's Cuyahoga County, Obama leads by a narrower 45 percent to 40 percent margin. Kerry carried Franklin County 54 percent to 45 percent in 2004.

Bucks County: Winning Bucks County by 6 points means the race is over in Pennsylvania. It's important to note that Bucks is the oldest, whitest and most conservative of the suburban Philly counties. This is where Levittown, Pa. is, and Obama got absolutely destroyed by Hillary there -- 3-to-1 in many precincts.

Prince William County: Prince William is right below Fairfax, so basically it straddles the line between New Virginia and Old Virginia. Fairfax County contains 1 in every 7 Virginians and will break heavily for Obama. The entire margin McCain runs up everywhere else will be burned away by Fairfax County. So McCain probably doesn't have to win big in Prince William in order to win Virginia -- but he really cannot lose it.

St. Louis County: Really? This is just embarrassing for McCain.

And now with 19 days to go, I guess it's finally time to ask: What the hell, Ohio? What aren't you getting? I've officially had enough of the Buckeye State's stale act. We are pulling away in Virginia, Colorado and Florida, winning in North Carolina and (as evidence above) freaking Missouri. Why is Ohio lagging behind? This is why my map has never had Ohio blue. It's going to be downright embarrassing if Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina go for Obama and Ohio goes for McCain. This is now possible.

McCain loses hastily convened fourth presidential debate with lifesize cardboard Obama

2008-10-17T10:20:00.001-04:00

http://dagblog.com/humor-satire/mccain-loses-hastily-convened-fourth-presidential-debate-lifesize-cardboard-obama

"Cardboard Obama was a more formidable opponent than expected," stated a surprised David Gregory.

WSJ: "Surveys split on Who Has Lead"

2008-10-17T10:15:00.001-04:00

And by "surveys split" they mean "Barack Obama is winning every single survey cited."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420151553142939.html

Facts no longer matter, as if we didn't know that.

From the doorstep, you can see all the way to the Russian Tea Room

2008-10-16T23:53:00.002-04:00

I'm absolutely sure he didn't write any of this, but it's great.

(All in fun... and McCain was pretty funny too. The Al Smith Dinner is a charity affair and traditionally both presidential candidates headline it every fourth year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Smith_Dinner).)

A disturbing development in the news industry

2008-10-16T23:39:00.001-04:00

I think this'll get resolved, but who knows:

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003874855

Tribune Company has given a two-year notice to the Associated Press that its daily newspapers plan to drop the news service, becoming the first major newspaper chain to do so since the recent controversy over new rates began.

Tribune, of course, owns the Baltimore Sun -- as well as (obviously) the Chicago Tribune, the L.A. Times, Long Island's Newsday and other publications.

The AP is definitely increasing dues fees. But so many newspapers, including the Sun, have already cut foreign reporting entirely and are scaling back on domestic bureaus and even coverage within their own thirty-mile zones. They've been able to do this largely because The AP always has their back. If there's no organic reporting, and there's no AP content, exactly what kind of national and world coverage will these publications (and their websites) have? None at all?

Washington Post endorses Obama

2008-10-16T23:18:00.001-04:00

A thoughtful endorsement (we'd expect nothing less.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603436.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

[I]t is without ambivalence that we endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president.

The choice is made easy in part by Mr. McCain's disappointing campaign, above all his irresponsible selection of a running mate who is not ready to be president. It is made easy in larger part, though, because of our admiration for Mr. Obama and the impressive qualities he has shown during this long race.

[...]

Mr. Obama is a man of supple intelligence, with a nuanced grasp of complex issues and evident skill at conciliation and consensus-building.

[...]

Mr. Obama also understands that the most important single counter to inequality, and the best way to maintain American competitiveness, is improved education, another subject of only modest interest to Mr. McCain. Mr. Obama would focus attention on early education and on helping families so that another generation of poor children doesn't lose out.

This piece is interesting in that it contains an earnest, succinct description of what John McCain used to be. He used to be not so bad.

IT GIVES US no pleasure to oppose Mr. McCain. Over the years, he has been a force for principle and bipartisanship. He fought to recognize Vietnam, though some of his fellow ex-POWs vilified him for it. He stood up for humane immigration reform, though he knew Republican primary voters would punish him for it. He opposed torture and promoted campaign finance reform, a cause that Mr. Obama injured when he broke his promise to accept public financing in the general election campaign. Mr. McCain staked his career on finding a strategy for success in Iraq when just about everyone else in Washington was ready to give up. We think that he, too, might make a pretty good president.

But the stress of a campaign can reveal some essential truths, and the picture of Mr. McCain that emerged this year is far from reassuring. To pass his party's tax-cut litmus test, he jettisoned his commitment to balanced budgets. He hasn't come up with a coherent agenda, and at times he has seemed rash and impulsive. And we find no way to square his professed passion for America's national security with his choice of a running mate who, no matter what her other strengths, is not prepared to be commander in chief.

In the end, though:

Mr. Obama's temperament is unlike anything we've seen on the national stage in many years. He is deliberate but not indecisive; eloquent but a master of substance and detail; preternaturally confident but eager to hear opposing points of view. He has inspired millions of voters of diverse ages and races, no small thing in our often divided and cynical country. We think he is the right man for a perilous moment.

My new map -- adds Florida

2008-10-16T10:24:00.002-04:00

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/12221/

><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.

Today, October 19, I added Florida (we win 318-220).

In my last map, October 6, I added Michigan and New Hampshire (we would have won 291-247).

My original map, assembled August 19, had Obama winning 270 to 268.

Next to yield (in this predicted order): OH, NC, WV, IN, MO, NE-02, MT, ND, AR, AZ

Don't hate on the stripes

2008-10-16T09:30:00.001-04:00

Here's a bit of folksy, homespun wisdom out of a conversation I just had with a friend who's amazed that McCain keeps talking about things like ACORN and the media.

I've always said -- be it sports or politics -- that you've got to play well enough to "beat the ref" -- that is, you need to do well enough that you end up ahead even if unfair factors beyond your control tilt toward the other guy or gal.

And to the extent that McCain has been engaged in this, I agree that you might often find it necessary, therefore, to work the ref.

But what McCain seemed to do at some point was start to compete against the ref.

Ed Hochuli is not running here. John McCain will offer up as many fiery postgame press conferences as he wants in November; that won't make him President-elect.

On the abortion issue

2008-10-15T23:38:00.001-04:00

Repeatedly over the past few months, folks have told me that they've thought Obama has spent too much time rambling on questions about abortion. I'd like to put forth the opposing viewpoint.

Getting asked about abortion is a loser of a proposition for Obama. While a plurality to a majority of Americans are in favor of legalized abortion with modest restrictions, the center of that group just doesn't feel strongly about it either way. On the other hand, folks on the left and the right feel very strongly and are quick to seize on phrases and even single words within answers to questions about abortion.

Also, setting aside political considerations, Obama's actual honest point of view on the issue does not lend itself to a soundbite answer. For Obama, abortion is just not something that can be summarized with a response like "I would overturn Roe versus Wade" or "a woman's right to choose is paramount" or even the famous Clintonism "safe, legal and rare." It's much more complicated than that.

Obama's answers to questions about abortion have centered on the sense that it is a moral issue with serious ramifications to all parties involved -- the mother and the unborn, parents and doctors, judges and lawmakers. I am encouraged by the answer both personally and as an observer of politics. I, for one, am hopeful that during his first term, we might in fact see the passage of something like the 95-10 Initiative (aimed at a 95 percent reduction of abortions in 10 years) championed by an alliance of anti-abortion and anti-criminalization Democrats and Republicans.

95-10: http://www.democratsforlife.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=48&Itemid=45

Obama wins again.

2008-10-15T23:24:00.000-04:00

Barack Obama: thoughtful; cool; presidential.

John McCain: unfocused; out of touch; done.

There were a couple of interesting issues questions, but in terms of overall performance, this debate was the same as the other two. Obama was good. McCain was fair at best, poor at worst. The snap polls are bearing this out; also, McCain was the attacker by a margin in the CNN poll of 80 percent to 7... and Obama was more clear in laying out his plans by a margin of 65 to 22.

Debate contest winner: Barack Obama.

Debate contest loser: John McCain.

VA: Webb's ad for Obama emphasizes trust

2008-10-15T16:04:00.001-04:00

Great radio spot. My man.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/in_his_first_ad_jim_webb_vouch.php

Full transcript:

My dad taught me to hunt and shoot when I was a young boy. He gave me my first rifle on my eighth birthday -- just as I gave my son a rifle when he turned eight. Our family traditions of hunting and shooting are a way of life to me -- and no government will ever take that away.

Hello, this is Senator Jim Webb. I am an NRA member. And I know that my friend Barack Obama will protect my Second Amendment rights.

So don't be misled about Barack Obama in the closing days of this campaign. I trust Barack Obama. I trust him to protect our right to keep and bear arms. And just as important, I trust him to stand with me to protect American jobs and our greatness as a nation -- because we both care about making this economy work for everyone.

So join me, Jim Webb, in support of Barack Obama for President. He's a good fit for me -- and a good fit for Virginia.

UPDATE: Republican cheater resigns!

2008-10-15T15:43:00.001-04:00

Vote suppression shenanigans bring down the head of the Montana GOP... three weeks before Election Day.

I wrote last week about what's now the backstory:

http://thirdamendmentwatch.blogspot.com/2008/10/republicans-cheat.html

Called out below -- remarkably -- by one of their own, the Republican lieutenant governor in Montana.

http://www.mtstandard.com/articles/2008/10/05/opinion/hjjbijjejjigfj.txt

Frank St. Pierre, of Anaconda, fought in World War II. He is one of the most decorated living veterans in America. And yet, on Wednesday, my party — the Montana Republican Party — tried to invalidate his voter registration because he lives in a county with a lot of Democrats. Incredible as this may sound to you, it is the truth.

[...]

St. Pierre... moved from one end of town to the other, and the Republicans tried to void his and his wife's registrations. I have a copy of the signed affidavits from the Republicans, declaring that Frank and Marilyn St. Pierre's voter registrations must be purged. An utter disgrace.

This proved to be too much not only for Montana Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger -- but for a lot of ordinary Montanans.

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/10/15/news/local/news03.txt

HELENA - In an unusual move three weeks before the election and after a failed attempt to challenge voter registrations in some Democratic strongholds, the Montana Republican Party said Tuesday night it was changing executive directors.

Former state Rep. Larry Grinde of Lewistown was named the party's executive director after Jake Eaton resigned "to pursue other interests," the news release said.

[...]

Last week, rumors were running rampant in political circles that Eaton would be pushed out because of the much-criticized effort to challenge voter registrations in seven heavily Democratic counties.

Reached by telephone Tuesday night, Eaton said, "It's all going to be all right. I'm going to work for an outfit, DNS Equity Consulting, a consulting and private equity firm in Madison, Wis. It's just one of those deals. The opportunity came up and I took it."

Ha! The best part is at the end. I'm sure he'll just love Madison. Eaton's brand of politics will go over really well there.

BREAKING: Limbaugh still an overt racist

2008-10-15T15:33:00.001-04:00

Hat tip to Crooks and Liars for this partial transcript of an El Rushbo rant yesterday:

http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/rush-limbaugh-says-blacks-are-angry-and

Limbaugh: We know that technological advancement is going along at light speed. And yet during this period of time, whether it be the last 57 years or be it the last 20 years, it seems that a majority of the black population has remained angry, frustrated, and behind. They've been left behind. They are acting like they've been left behind, and of course we've heard that this is because of racism, natural systemic institutional racism in America, that we are unfair, that this country is just horrible and rotten.

...The federal government became the father. The father didn't have to hang around in order for the kids to be okay, depending on how you define okay. But as you study more and more of this ACORN stuff, you find that it has been part of an entire movement that has been going on for two, maybe three decades, right under our noses.

We thought that it was just liberal welfare policies and all that that kept blacks from progressing while other minorities grew and prospered, but no, it is these wackos from Bill Ayers to Jeremiah Wright to other anti-American Afrocentric black liberation theologists with ACORN, and Barack Obama is smack dab in the middle of it, they have been training young black kids to hate, hate, hate this country, and they trained their parents before that to hate, hate, hate this country. It was a movement. It was a Bill Ayers, anti-capitalist, anti-American educational movement. ACORN is how it was implemented, right under our noses.

It has been a movement, it has been a religion, and Obama and Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers were all up to their big ears in it.

Rush Limbaugh: Oops! You're racist!

Soon you will be poorer

2008-10-15T12:36:00.001-04:00

This won't come as a shock, but...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27196062

Income for the median household — the one in the dead middle of the income distribution — will probably be lower in 2010 than it was, amazingly enough, a full decade earlier. That hasn't happened since the 1930s. Already, median pay today is slightly lower than it was in 2000, and by 2010, could end up more than 5 percent lower than its old peak.

[...]

What will make this recession different, no matter how deep or shallow it is, is that it's following an expansion in which most families received little or no raise. The median household made $50,200 last year, slightly less than the $50,600 that the equivalent household earned in 2000, according to the Census Bureau. That's the first time on record that income failed to set a new record in an economic expansion.

[...]

The bigger factors are probably some combination of the following: new technologies, global trade, slowing gains in educational attainment, the rise of single-parent families, the continued decline in unionization and the sharp increase in inequality, which has concentrated income gains at the top of the ladder. Your political views will probably determine the relative weights that you assign to those causes. Economic research hasn't yet definitively answered the question.

"Your political views will probably determine the relative weights you assign to those causes." Meaning, if you are a wealthy Republican whose income has dropped $10,000 -- from $1.20 million to $1.19 million -- aww, hell, if you make that much you're not reading this blog so who cares.

This is what eight years of Bush economics and thirty years of trickle-down economic theory have gotten us. A lot more rich people and a bunch of exceptionally poor people... and no one left here in the middle class at all.

President Bush's crowning domestic achievement

2008-10-15T10:42:00.001-04:00

Is it the Daylight Saving Time shift?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_Act_of_2005#Change_to_daylight_saving_time

Accepting nominations.