Job losses -- "The sun also rises."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28069440

 

So this analysis takes one of the very few things I already knew about macroeconomics -- that job gains and job losses are both lagging indicators of the health of the economy -- and comes to the conclusion that the worst is over as of today.  In fact, he found a grown-up willing to say as much:

 

"Every recession has its worst day, and this is probably the worst day," says Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

 

~

 

"Severe drops like this (the Sept.-Nov. payrolls) cannot be sustained," says Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics.

 

I think that's probably right as far as it goes... and it dovetails with the idea that if this is in fact not another Great Depression -- that we are starting to run out of ground where we can bottom out and not actually attain economic dimensions last seen in the 1930s.

 

Another pretty easy-to-grasp example is that the Great Depression saw an 80 percent stock drop.  We've already seen a 60 percent drop in the S&P.  There just isn't much daylight left between 60 percent and 80 percent, is the point... just like with these jobs numbers.  There's a reason it's been since 1974 that America lost 533,000 jobs in one month:  it's just not structurally possible that often, it takes a catastrope like the failure of Lehman Brothers to bring it on, and it can't happen month after month after month.

 

Now, the possibility that's still out there, admittedly, is that this is another Great Depression -- that we are fooling ourselves about how not-bad things are and that we are in for ten long years of things being as bad as they have ever been.  I don't think that's where we're headed and I'm not alone in predicting that we avoid that... but it remains possible.

 

In short, though:  If this is, in fact, simply a bad recession... then I think we will look back on December 5, 2008 as the moment when we were halfway through the tunnel.  With additional layoffs and government furloughs and stock and oil price drops still looming, it will still be dark in here for a while, but we'll be able to see the light shortly.

Larry Kudlow is a tool.

I'm not going to link to any of his stuff, but I just wanted to get Third Amendment Watch on the record.  Fish some out of the internets yourself if you want.  Just google Larry Kudlow, click on the first thing you find that he's written, read it, and then see if you're dumber for having done so.

 

Loyal readers, I know you come here for thoughtful discourse and not name-calling, but this is not my fault.  It's Larry Kudlow's fault.  If you see him, punch him in the junk for me.

Alabama -- you are awful. I invite you to cease to be.

In Alabama, 9 out of every 10 whites voted for John McCain.  Alabama:  Oops!  You're racist!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/us/politics/11south.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

More on the 'center-right America' myth

Alert readers will note this author's earlier remarks on the myth of a 'center-right America,' a concept being talked up by conservatives who are mad that they lost last week.

 

http://thirdamendmentwatch.blogspot.com/2008/11/and-enough-with-this-center-right.html

There is no center-right majority.

 

To begin with, we just -- and honestly, this was like 15 hours ago -- elected a liberal Democrat to the presidency.

 

Beyond that -- the support Republicans often provide for this argument is that when asked, more people identify themselves as "conservative" than as "liberal."  Well, duh.  The GOP spent 30 years turning the word "liberal" into a swear word.  Because we were limp and ineffectual, it worked.

Well, Rasmussen just polled on this question, and turns out I'm right.

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/43_say_it_s_best_to_compare_a_candidate_to_reagan

For most U.S. voters, the only thing worse than calling a candidate a conservative is calling him a liberal.

 

[...]

 

Liberal is the only one of the five political labels surveyed that is viewed more negatively than positively, which likely explains why nearly all liberal politicians now refer to themselves as progressives.

These findings are roughly comparable to those in a survey in July 2007 after a Democratic presidential debate in which Hillary Clinton insisted she would rather be called a progressive than a liberal.

At the low end, just 19% regard it as a positive to describe a candidate as politically liberal. Thirty-six percent (36%) say it's a negative reference. For 41%, it falls somewhere between negative and positive.

To reiterate the point here:  Anyone who uses "Americans prefer 'conservatives' to 'liberals'" as evidence of a center-right America is cheating and lying because 'liberal' is a poison word that makes people forget about the policies that a conservative or progressive pol would espouse.

The place we can see Russia from? It's Obama country

Looking over the vote-by-county maps, a friend and I noticed that Oklahoma was probably the only state in the country in which Obama failed to carry a single county -- but that it was impossible to know for sure because Alaska only reports a statewide tally.

 

So I dug up the PDFs for each of Alaska's 40 state House districts (http://www.elect.alaska.net/)... and what I found is pretty amusing.

 

Obama apparently won only five Alaska state House districts.  Three would have been easy guesses:

• District 3 (Juneau, 3334 to 1932)
• District 23 (Anchorage Downtown/Rogers Park, 2457 to 1869)
• District 26 (Anchorage Turnagain/Inlet View, 3069 to 3001)

The other two, though, are more of a surprise.  (District map:  http://www.state.ak.us/redistricting/amendedfinal/maps/statewide.pdf; ignore the letters, as they refer to state Senate districts).

 

Districts 38 and 39 are located on Alaska's western edge.

• District 38 (Bethel, 2059 to 1727)
• District 39 (Bering Straits, 2296 to 1996)

Anyone remember the CNN piece about Little Diomede, Alaska?

 

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg0l-PinkZE

 

This is the island from which Americans can, indeed, literally see Russia.  Little Diomede is in District 39.  We carried the island itself, 23 to 4.

 

Turns out Little Diomede itself is a Democratic enclave, having voted 25 to 11 for Kerry/Edwards in 2004 (http://www.elections.alaska.gov/04genr/data/sovc/hd39.pdf).  But -- big picture -- we actually flipped District 38 and District 39 overall.  Both districts were Bush/Cheney country last time around (District 38 went Bush 1792 to 1723 and District 39, 2881 to 2365).

 

Bottom line:  the folks whom Sarah Palin thinks ought to know Russia best (because, hey, it's right there!)...  thought maybe it would be better if she weren't a 72-year-old heartbeat away from the Oval Office.

 

As usual, The Onion said it better than anyone else.

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/kobe_bryant_scores_25_in_holy_shit

Bryant, who got off to a slow start early, but managed to find his touch late in the third, incredible. A black president for a nation whose entire history has been haunted by the specter of slavery and plagued by racism since before its inception. That this happened in our lifetime is remarkable; that it happened within 50 years of a time when segregation was still considered an acceptable institution is astonishing. Absolutely astonishing. This is an achievement on par with the moon landing.

Bryant closed out the fourth quarter with eight points in five minutes.

Perriello wins

Received last night the Perriello campaign.  Chalk another one up for the good guys!

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Tom Perriello <tomp@perrielloforcongress.com>
Date: Fri, Nov 7, 2008 at 5:29 PM
Subject: Stop hitting refresh

 

Friends, family and supporters.

 

We finally have an official tally and bipartisan confirmation from every county (less than 10 ballots left to confirm!), and the outcome is now certain: we have won the race and will be going to Washington to represent this amazing district. Some are already calling ours the biggest upset of the year and a bellwether of a new kind of politics in Virginia. I know some of you have taken a blow to work productivity as you hit refresh every few minutes, checking results. This has been a team effort from the start, and this victory belongs to all of us.

 

Rep. Goode has the right to challenge the outcome and probably will, so we will remain fully activated to protect our victory, but we have every reason to believe that this result will hold.

 

It is hard for me to express how much your support and your vote mean to me. I set out a year ago to show that a better kind of politics is possible. We wanted to show that Americans care more about an authentic sense of right and wrong than an artificial sense of right and left. We wanted to show that people are smarter and more decent than our politicians and media give them credit for. We wanted to show that our politics is capable of caring about jobs in Danville and genocide in Darfur – we have the capacity to promote the common good.

Re-living it one more time on a Friday afternoon. Have a good weekend, everyone.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27546027#27546027

Photos from Grant Park!

All of the photos are courtesy of my pal in Chicago.  She's contributing often enough that she may need a blogger code name.

President-elect Barack Obama.

We win.

There's just that one guy not watching the screen.

Jib arm of freedom.

Folks in the crowd.

100,000 people -- and no one could have said something to Michelle about that dress?

Giant Screen we can believe in... or Giant Screen we need?

"Obama Presidential Rally" -- a stop on the Blue Line.

Art Museum minus Bueller plus strategically arranged lights.

USA: The North American country Sarah Palin can name.

In which I agree with Baptists. Wait, what?

Richard Land has gotten himself into worlds of trouble lately for daring to not-demonize every Democrat alive.  So he gets credit for that.

I'm also totally on board with his call for Barack Obama to lead the way on 95-10.  Obama made a lot of hay with cultural moderates by working with various groups to include both pro-choice and abortion reduction language in the party platform.

This shouldn't be the first thing Obama does, but it should be on the four-year list. 

http://www.sojo.net/blog/godspolitics/?p=3592&title

This bill would:

• Establish a toll-free number to direct women to places that will provide support during and following their pregnancy.

• Provide child care to low-income and student parents.

• Provide parenting education in maternity group homes.

• Make the Adoption Tax Credits permanent.

• Ensure that pregnant women are not denied health care by insurance companies and that coverage is continued for newborns.

• Codify the regulation that extends coverage under the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) to low-income pregnant women and unborn children.

• Increase funding for the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Nutrition Program.

• Provide grants to institutions of higher education to fund pregnant and parenting student services.

• Provide new mothers with free home visits by registered nurses.

Instant redemption, just add Obama

AP: "Suddenly, It May Be Cool To Be American Again"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/05/ap-suddenlyly-it-may-be-c_n_141631.html

"She was a stranger, and she kissed me. Just for being an American."